Is Raghuram Rajan gunning to be the next Manmohan Singh of Congress party?

It is not every day one sees a central banker mark his presence at a national political rally. But Raghuram Rajan isn’t a typical central banker.

During his tenure as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor, the economist has courted controversies with his blunt talk on issues that went far beyond his mandate criticising the government for undermining the central bank’s autonomy and warning against the growing intolerance in the country. Rajan has never shied away from criticism.

Hence, Rajan joining Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Bharat Jodo’ yatra hasn’t come as a big surprise to many, including to Gandhi's political opponents. In fact, Rajan’s participation evoked quick political reactions.

BJP spokesperson Amit Malviya tweeted on Wednesday calling Rajan a Congress appointee and someone who "fancies" himself as the next Manmohan Singh referring to former Prime Minister and the RBI Governor.

"Just that his commentary on India's economy should be discarded with disdain. It is coloured and opportunistic," said Malavya.

Why did Rajan’s participation in Bharat Jodo Yatra attract the attention of Gandhi’s political opponents? Do the political rivals see Rajan as a threat in the enemy quarters particularly ahead of the 2024 Parliament polls?

Rajan the next MMS?

The more important question is does Rajan--the man credited with predicting the 2008 global financial crisis-aspire to be the next Manmohan Singh of the Congress party? We don't know yet; only time will tell. An email sent to Raghuram Rajan seeking his comments on joining the Bharat Jodo yatra and chances of him taking up a role in the Congress party remained unanswered till the time of filing this piece.

Take a closer look, both Rajan and Manmohan Singh have striking similarities in their career paths. Both have served in key roles in the Indian government and the central bank. Both command respect internationally.

Rajan, like Singh, is well aware of the nuances of the Indian economy and has stuck his neck out on a number of occasions during his stint at the RBI to speak on socio-political issues. He has commanded a degree of stardom among the informed middle class and even the laymen on the street.

The Timing

Singh handheld the Indian economy when it was on a roller coaster ride in the liberalisation era and also played an instrumental role in boosting the intellectual core of Congress in the subsequent decades.

There is a view that getting Rajan back to India and to the centre of political opposition can work even better both for the economy and the party, when the country is, yet again, facing a bout of economic crisis characterised by a weak rupee, agrarian crisis, and rising unemployment.

If one measures both Rajan and Manmohan on a popularity meter at this point in their career, Rajan would stand a tad ahead of Manmohan, except for the fact that he hasn't had his stint in the Indian central ministry yet. However, Rajan carries a star image that can be easily converted to the UPA's political brownie points in the run-up to the 2024 polls.

Even six years after leaving India — he is currently a Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business — Rajan continues to hold his space in local media and political circles, a reputation that not many former central bank governors can claim.

In debates on black money and unemployment, Rajan's words will carry more weight than any other political leader, at any point.

In 1991, Manmohan's selection for the finance minister's portfolio surprised many as he, 59 then, was seen as an apolitical technocrat and someone who had spent his whole life practicing economics and academic interests. But the decision was a political necessity for Narasimha Rao and the Congress to convince Manmohan to have an able hand in the government to wade through the economic mess.

India was then going through a severe balance of payment crisis, and shoddy economics would have toppled even good politics severely if not approached with extreme caution.

In the years that followed, Manmohan Singh evolved beyond the persona of a typical technocrat. Although he never perfected as a politician, Singh gradually learned to walk and talk like one.

The Opposition called him a puppet dancing to the whims of the Gandhi family and ridiculed his silence on many critical occasions. But Manmohan donned the role of a pillar to give a credible prime ministerial face to the ever-divided UPA house and the unhappy Congress biological system, which developed a tendency to reject leadership elements beyond the Gandhis after the Nehru-Indira era.

In 2004 and in 2009, Manmohan continued to be the prime ministerial face of the Congress and was praised and criticised for his own share of contributions and political mistakes. But he remained in office for a decade, giving the party much-needed stability as one of UPA's central figures.

Rajan’s entry at this point could potentially add immense value to the fast-fading Congress party. At this point, the UPA has lost its direction politically. It doesn’t have strong national leaders and a face to showcase ahead of the 2024 polls.

The leadership vacuum is visible in the outcomes of recent state elections when Congress seats have further shrunk nationally.

It's high time the coalition went back to its drawing board and revisited the 1991 Narasimha Rao days to opt for a surprise pick that can offer the BJP-led NDA a serious challenge. Rajan, a familiar face to the informed Indian middle-class voters, can very well turn out to be that trump card. Maybe Rajan joining the Bharat Jodo yatra isn't a mere coincidence.